If I got the whole thing right, sales can 'crater' as much as they want, if shareholders don't sell and or offer shares at a higher price and or if new 'investors' buy what is offered at the current price, the stock goes up.
Amazon wrote red numbers for decades but it's stock kept rising. In the end, the company fulfilled pretty much all promises made and the "trust" and "cooperation" of the stakeholders paid off.
Tesla is a crazy competent company. Just because the markets change preferences or the target group is 'stuffed', doesn't mean that the corporation won't perform in the near future. In fact, if stock price stays high despite plunging sales, somebody knows something ... (or the CEO of the company hangs out in the White House a lot)
> If I got the whole thing right, sales can 'crater' as much as they want, if shareholders don't sell and or offer shares at a higher price and or if new 'investors' buy what is offered at the current price, the stock goes up.
That part is tautologically true. But why are people willing to buy at the higher price?
> In fact, if stock price stays high despite plunging sales, somebody knows something ... (or the CEO of the company hangs out in the White House a lot)
Given the brief bubble, I can see people expected the White House to help. Given the headline, it actually hurt.
So: who is the "somebody", and what do they know? Because if it's insider trading, that's a whole new problem.
"by the end of June (2024), Tesla had produced 11,000 Cybertrucks. (...) around 30,000 Cybertrucks by the end of the quarter (..) likely more than half of the ~23,000 “other vehicles” Tesla delivered in Q3 were Cybertrucks"
Only because we humans are used to judge "on short notice" all the time. The bigger picture translates into "crazy competent", but that might be a matter of opinion.
> I can see people expected the White House to help
I don't think "help" is the right word here. Elon got and will continue to get contracts for all the baby steps into space. And the "portfolio gang" knows, expects and works/cooperates on stuff without any of it falling into the problem of "insider trading".
This is all very superficial but I am not suited for a deeper dive.
> "by the end of June (2024), Tesla had produced 11,000 Cybertrucks. (...) around 30,000 Cybertrucks by the end of the quarter (..) likely more than half of the ~23,000 “other vehicles” Tesla delivered in Q3 were Cybertrucks"
Which is really bad compared to both the market expectations, the pre-orders, Musk's expectations, the other vehicles Tesla sells, and other vehicles in the same category:
> Only because we humans are used to judge "on short notice" all the time. The bigger picture translates into "crazy competent", but that might be a matter of opinion.
No, it doesn't translate into "crazy competent". He turned a failing car company into a successful one, at exactly the right time to take advantage of a simultaneous global desire to reduce fossil fuel use and a global massive battery prices reduction he had no direct causal responsibility to take credit for (because Tesla doesn't actually make a significant number of the batteries themselves, they partner with Panasonic), in the brief window before other car companies started doing the same thing better and harder — which is why China's EVs are now so cheap, that even with massive import duties in the EU, they're still cheaper and more performant than Tesla's.
It's not nothing, as his biggest critics would claim, but it's also not "crazy competent". If Tesla's share price was 1/10th to 1/20th of what it is, it would be worth that — which is genuinely impressive, but it's not "crazy competent".
The self-driving thing would have been great, except that he keeps promising "next year" since last decade without delivering, and now even if he reaches the current plan of "in a few cities" this summer, even if that's without safety drivers, that's something Waymo did already in November 2019 so Tesla would be 5.5 years behind them.
Trying to re-frame the company as an AI company that just happens to have cars? Again, a few dozen companies saw his actor in a zentai, pre-empted the real one by making their own robots, those robots are keeping pace with the capabilities of Tesla's *real* demos — although, the only thing demoed in the most recent party, which would be a breakthrough if the unit wasn't under remote control, would be "understands speech in noisy background". And several of those other androids ship, while Optimus still doesn't.
Profits crater, the stock goes up 5%.
The market obviously prefers Musk fantasy over facts.
I'm no expert, but that does seem… suspicious.
If I got the whole thing right, sales can 'crater' as much as they want, if shareholders don't sell and or offer shares at a higher price and or if new 'investors' buy what is offered at the current price, the stock goes up.
Amazon wrote red numbers for decades but it's stock kept rising. In the end, the company fulfilled pretty much all promises made and the "trust" and "cooperation" of the stakeholders paid off.
Tesla is a crazy competent company. Just because the markets change preferences or the target group is 'stuffed', doesn't mean that the corporation won't perform in the near future. In fact, if stock price stays high despite plunging sales, somebody knows something ... (or the CEO of the company hangs out in the White House a lot)
> If I got the whole thing right, sales can 'crater' as much as they want, if shareholders don't sell and or offer shares at a higher price and or if new 'investors' buy what is offered at the current price, the stock goes up.
That part is tautologically true. But why are people willing to buy at the higher price?
> Tesla is a crazy competent company
Sales figures demonstrate otherwise. Cybertruck especially.
The company used to be better.
> In fact, if stock price stays high despite plunging sales, somebody knows something ... (or the CEO of the company hangs out in the White House a lot)
Given the brief bubble, I can see people expected the White House to help. Given the headline, it actually hurt.
So: who is the "somebody", and what do they know? Because if it's insider trading, that's a whole new problem.
> But why are people willing to buy at the higher price?
I wrote "offer shares at a higher price". There is no reason to buy at a higher price until that price is the current price and keeps increasing.
> Sales figures demonstrate otherwise. Cybertruck especially.
"by the end of June (2024), Tesla had produced 11,000 Cybertrucks. (...) around 30,000 Cybertrucks by the end of the quarter (..) likely more than half of the ~23,000 “other vehicles” Tesla delivered in Q3 were Cybertrucks"
[] https://electrek.co/2024/10/03/tesla-reveals-how-many-cybert...
> The company used to be better.
Only because we humans are used to judge "on short notice" all the time. The bigger picture translates into "crazy competent", but that might be a matter of opinion.
> I can see people expected the White House to help
I don't think "help" is the right word here. Elon got and will continue to get contracts for all the baby steps into space. And the "portfolio gang" knows, expects and works/cooperates on stuff without any of it falling into the problem of "insider trading".
This is all very superficial but I am not suited for a deeper dive.
> "by the end of June (2024), Tesla had produced 11,000 Cybertrucks. (...) around 30,000 Cybertrucks by the end of the quarter (..) likely more than half of the ~23,000 “other vehicles” Tesla delivered in Q3 were Cybertrucks"
Which is really bad compared to both the market expectations, the pre-orders, Musk's expectations, the other vehicles Tesla sells, and other vehicles in the same category:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timelin...
https://carfigures.com/us-market-brand/ford/f-series
> Only because we humans are used to judge "on short notice" all the time. The bigger picture translates into "crazy competent", but that might be a matter of opinion.
No, it doesn't translate into "crazy competent". He turned a failing car company into a successful one, at exactly the right time to take advantage of a simultaneous global desire to reduce fossil fuel use and a global massive battery prices reduction he had no direct causal responsibility to take credit for (because Tesla doesn't actually make a significant number of the batteries themselves, they partner with Panasonic), in the brief window before other car companies started doing the same thing better and harder — which is why China's EVs are now so cheap, that even with massive import duties in the EU, they're still cheaper and more performant than Tesla's.
It's not nothing, as his biggest critics would claim, but it's also not "crazy competent". If Tesla's share price was 1/10th to 1/20th of what it is, it would be worth that — which is genuinely impressive, but it's not "crazy competent".
The self-driving thing would have been great, except that he keeps promising "next year" since last decade without delivering, and now even if he reaches the current plan of "in a few cities" this summer, even if that's without safety drivers, that's something Waymo did already in November 2019 so Tesla would be 5.5 years behind them.
Trying to re-frame the company as an AI company that just happens to have cars? Again, a few dozen companies saw his actor in a zentai, pre-empted the real one by making their own robots, those robots are keeping pace with the capabilities of Tesla's *real* demos — although, the only thing demoed in the most recent party, which would be a breakthrough if the unit wasn't under remote control, would be "understands speech in noisy background". And several of those other androids ship, while Optimus still doesn't.