Interesting discussion. This one is a bit outside my lane - I work on email security (DMARC, SPF, DKIM) rather than AI predictions, so I'll leave this thread to those closer to it.
In August 2023 Gary Marcus warned that generative AI economics were broken. In a Wired piece shortly after he predicted the bubble would collapse in 2025. It did not. In August 2024 he wrote the collapse was "days or weeks" away. It was not. Last week he filed Accenture's earnings as bubble confirmation without reading the earnings report. Today he has coined the "Generative AI Fizzle™": a slow decline rather than a collapse. The trademark symbol is on a rebranded failed prediction. The evidence he is not citing tells a more complicated story than either his original thesis or its replacement.
Interesting discussion. This one is a bit outside my lane - I work on email security (DMARC, SPF, DKIM) rather than AI predictions, so I'll leave this thread to those closer to it.
In August 2023 Gary Marcus warned that generative AI economics were broken. In a Wired piece shortly after he predicted the bubble would collapse in 2025. It did not. In August 2024 he wrote the collapse was "days or weeks" away. It was not. Last week he filed Accenture's earnings as bubble confirmation without reading the earnings report. Today he has coined the "Generative AI Fizzle™": a slow decline rather than a collapse. The trademark symbol is on a rebranded failed prediction. The evidence he is not citing tells a more complicated story than either his original thesis or its replacement.