So this doesn't need to be hourly. Use the ECMWF IFS 00 and 12 as observations only.
RMSE really favors average models, AI models are bad... but look good in statistics because they are so average. Look at the output of AI models visually on a map and they are just a blurry mess.
In my area AIFS and AIGFS get the top results but the actual best performing model (because I'm a weather nerd) ends up in third place.
There also seems to be some issue with short and long run models in you comparison. I also see a few models on the list that don't cover my area so it looks like you are not querying for just the specific models but the model+ECMWF fill.
very cool project. I imagine there is a commercial market with the weather polymarket betting. I would love to see a legend, or some guidance on comprehended your data.
I will be self promotional here: my project, slickfast, is free and open source. SlickFast is all about visualizing data, its super powerful and made for agentic workflows. It could buttress your project and won't cost anything to try it out, or free if you meet AGPL. I'd love to talk to you about it.
So this doesn't need to be hourly. Use the ECMWF IFS 00 and 12 as observations only.
RMSE really favors average models, AI models are bad... but look good in statistics because they are so average. Look at the output of AI models visually on a map and they are just a blurry mess.
In my area AIFS and AIGFS get the top results but the actual best performing model (because I'm a weather nerd) ends up in third place.
There also seems to be some issue with short and long run models in you comparison. I also see a few models on the list that don't cover my area so it looks like you are not querying for just the specific models but the model+ECMWF fill.
Really interesting!
Might be useful to expand the full name of each model somewhere (perhaps with a one para description and/or or a link).
On the trends tab, would it be worth zooming in a little? There's less value in showing 2021-24 since only GFS data is included for those years.
very cool project. I imagine there is a commercial market with the weather polymarket betting. I would love to see a legend, or some guidance on comprehended your data.
I will be self promotional here: my project, slickfast, is free and open source. SlickFast is all about visualizing data, its super powerful and made for agentic workflows. It could buttress your project and won't cost anything to try it out, or free if you meet AGPL. I'd love to talk to you about it.
Thanks! I haven't heard about weather polymarket betting, sounds fun. I will have a look at slickfast, do I understand correctly it's an mcp?