Nasdaq posts largest one-day percentage drop since early June
Oh no! Not since June!
This is like watching a hockey game: “it’s the first time any player has scored a goal in the history of the game!!! While wearing green socks on a Sunday when the outdoor temp is exactly 72.1643f”
Covid drops were a true black swan, 6-10% drops. Justified because we shut down the world. We’re still paying for that… You have the crazy crashes like black monday and a few of the days in 08/09. But the worst times are the repricings where there’s suddenly a realization that we haven’t been paying enough attention to the true value of things, and maybe we should have been doing that. That’s the long multi year stagnating bear markets like 1999-2002. I think probably 50-75% haircut is warranted. That doesn’t mean we won’t rise again, but you also have a lot of money held by boomers who just aren’t going to go back in. This is the start of a long decline that is needed to get things back to a normal tracking of reality. It must happen and it’s actually good for everyone to get a stronger sense of the sacrifices we all have to make to build a functional world. We all have to work hard almost our entire lives. It’s just how it is. Robots are going to help this time for sure, that hard work will reward us and our successor generations with longer, healthier lives. But we still need to work hard.
A datacenter needs electrical switchgear, UPSes for short term backup, generators for long term backup, and cooling equipment. All of these items plus the labor to install them (along with piping, wire, conduit) account for probably 90%+ of the cost of the buildout.
CAT sells diesel generators and gas turbine generators which are needed by every data center. There are two mature generator manufacturers in the US (Cummins and CAT) plus Generac (yes I’m aware of MTU/Kohler/etc) and their backlog is long enough that Amazon bought part of Generac.
This is like watching a hockey game: “it’s the first time any player has scored a goal in the history of the game!!! While wearing green socks on a Sunday when the outdoor temp is exactly 72.1643f”
Sports stats always crack me up. You can make anything sound groundbreaking if you contextualize it correctly
Covid drops were a true black swan, 6-10% drops. Justified because we shut down the world. We’re still paying for that… You have the crazy crashes like black monday and a few of the days in 08/09. But the worst times are the repricings where there’s suddenly a realization that we haven’t been paying enough attention to the true value of things, and maybe we should have been doing that. That’s the long multi year stagnating bear markets like 1999-2002. I think probably 50-75% haircut is warranted. That doesn’t mean we won’t rise again, but you also have a lot of money held by boomers who just aren’t going to go back in. This is the start of a long decline that is needed to get things back to a normal tracking of reality. It must happen and it’s actually good for everyone to get a stronger sense of the sacrifices we all have to make to build a functional world. We all have to work hard almost our entire lives. It’s just how it is. Robots are going to help this time for sure, that hard work will reward us and our successor generations with longer, healthier lives. But we still need to work hard.
Why did CAT of all companies triple on AI? What they hell are AI bulldozers going to even do?
Oh, right. The prophecy.
https://youtu.be/azEvfD4C6ow
CAT is has a deep catalog of power systems [https://www.cat.com/en_US/products/new/power-systems/electri...] which are being used to power data centers. It is a similar rise to other stocks like GE Vernova.
Yes, in particular they own Solar Turbines which makes gas turbine equipment.
A datacenter needs electrical switchgear, UPSes for short term backup, generators for long term backup, and cooling equipment. All of these items plus the labor to install them (along with piping, wire, conduit) account for probably 90%+ of the cost of the buildout.
CAT sells diesel generators and gas turbine generators which are needed by every data center. There are two mature generator manufacturers in the US (Cummins and CAT) plus Generac (yes I’m aware of MTU/Kohler/etc) and their backlog is long enough that Amazon bought part of Generac.
It’s a gold rush, they sell the shovels (for all the data center construction).
The graph has a zoom out button btw
Alternative title: "Fears of tech selloff spark tech selloff"
I liquidated my retirement yesterday.
We all know the market is too good to be true.
We all know we created a great hollowness where once was our indomitable spirit. When a tree has died but still stands, what's left is the fall.
To the industry I once knew and loved: may the fall be swift, and may you be reborn from the ruins
exactly how much percent of a crash would you qualify as the bubble popping? 100% ? 1000%?
Correction is commonly interpreted to mean 10-20%, crash is more than 20%.
See for instance https://www.nbc.ca/en/direct-brokerage/learning-centre/analy...
When mainstream news start discussing if Coreweave will go chapter 11 or chapter 7.
I'd compare it to earlier bubble pops, like the dotcom one and the 2007 crash.
This doesn't seem to be one. At least not yet.
Also, this is really a lot about Amazon who didn't really manage to make a dent in the AI market and are cutting their losses as a result.
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