> If all of this money went into the capital markets instead [...]
Money is neither created nor destroyed in prediction markets. (In most cases, the collateral goes into boring money market fund like fixed-income products, as far as I understand.)
The real concern here is that, for many people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place. Capital markets are a great way to preserve and modestly grow one's wealth. If there's no reasonable perspective of any wealth in the first place, is it any wonder that people are looking beyond?
In other words: If your job is at most paying half of what you need to lead the life you want to live (and that, in many cases, your parents have been able to afford working the same job just fine), suddenly betting on a game that pays double or nothing doesn't seem so irrational anymore.
> The real concern here is that, for many people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place.
This cannot possibly be the motivation; gambling is very rarely a worthwhile investment.
Manipulation through advertising, mobile app behavior alteration, and ease of access are the sole motivators here.
> people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place.
The odds are such that they loose. Gamblers end up with less money. These people are addicts solving their emotional problem at high financial cost and debt.
> suddenly betting on a game that pays double or nothing doesn't seem so irrational anymore.
It is as irrational as in any other situation. And odds are not double or nothing. That would simply made betting pointless
This is just another justification piece to blame millenials and gen z for the economy.
How about some real journalism about how propping up the economy through money printing has destroyed opportunity for the current working generation which has led them to these types of behaviors?
> More than a quarter of Gen Z and millennials surveyed together by Global Strategy Group said they participated in prediction markets, versus 10% of Gen X and just 2% of baby boomers.
This statement borders on lying. At the least it’s extremely misleading framing not supported by their own link.
The 25% of “prediction market” users are entirely doing sports gambling. Two different things that the gambling market desperately wants everyone to confuse.
so, to be clear, are you seeking to mislead us into thinking there is something fundamentally different between gambling on sporting events versus on things like election outcomes?
> there is something fundamentally different between gambling on sporting events versus on things like election outcomes
Yes. Everyone seems to like sports gambling and no one whatsoever cares about non-sports-gambling prediction markets. Thats the difference. Framing this as an issue about prediction markets is misleading. It’s about sports gambling only
Percent who say they "frequently" or "sometimes" engage in:
online sports betting: 23%
prediction markets: 14%
Not a huge difference. I would say the two things are not materially different in popularity (in this one survey).
The article (which I agree is a bit crappy) even goes out of its way to mention the two things separately in the sentence "For someone to win in a prediction market or sports bet, someone else has to lose." They are different things, but they are both zero-sum, which is the point of the article. So the two things are not really different in principle, either.
I can't really grasp what your point is or how you can criticize the article for not being unsupported by the link, and then misrepresent the contents of the link.
A lot of people are pretty puritanical about gambling in general. I think prediction markets just push themselves harder and have an air of tech bro douchebaggery about them, so that's why they are currently getting most of the hate.
> American capitalism was a win-win. We've abandoned it to bet | Opinion
> If all of this money went into the capital markets instead, it would finance the growth of companies through innovation and entrepreneurship, as well as infrastructure that girds the economy.
It's all about the fortune spent on prediction markets. The NBA just announced deals with them. It's capitalism's ultimate dream: "Self Regulation".
> If all of this money went into the capital markets instead [...]
Money is neither created nor destroyed in prediction markets. (In most cases, the collateral goes into boring money market fund like fixed-income products, as far as I understand.)
The real concern here is that, for many people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place. Capital markets are a great way to preserve and modestly grow one's wealth. If there's no reasonable perspective of any wealth in the first place, is it any wonder that people are looking beyond?
In other words: If your job is at most paying half of what you need to lead the life you want to live (and that, in many cases, your parents have been able to afford working the same job just fine), suddenly betting on a game that pays double or nothing doesn't seem so irrational anymore.
> The real concern here is that, for many people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place.
This cannot possibly be the motivation; gambling is very rarely a worthwhile investment.
Manipulation through advertising, mobile app behavior alteration, and ease of access are the sole motivators here.
Gambling addition is a addiction. No one who has it is rational. Same way drugs is an addiction, people who are on drugs are rarely thinking rational.
And why would they when there's very few options to begin with.
I dont get what you think is happening when people gamble or take drugs. Rarely is the reason rational and sober.
You referred the line about “capital markets”, but made a comment about prediction markets
So does the quoted text, no? It contrasts the two.
> people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place.
The odds are such that they loose. Gamblers end up with less money. These people are addicts solving their emotional problem at high financial cost and debt.
> suddenly betting on a game that pays double or nothing doesn't seem so irrational anymore.
It is as irrational as in any other situation. And odds are not double or nothing. That would simply made betting pointless
That's not the title of the article.
Articles quite often A/B their titles....
This is just another justification piece to blame millenials and gen z for the economy.
How about some real journalism about how propping up the economy through money printing has destroyed opportunity for the current working generation which has led them to these types of behaviors?
Are you saying the facts presented in the article are false? Many things can be true at once.
The 25% of “prediction market” users are entirely doing sports gambling. Two different things that the gambling market desperately wants everyone to confuse.
BS article, do not read.
How are they so different? Seems like sports is just a special case of the larger category.
so, to be clear, are you seeking to mislead us into thinking there is something fundamentally different between gambling on sporting events versus on things like election outcomes?
> there is something fundamentally different between gambling on sporting events versus on things like election outcomes
Yes. Everyone seems to like sports gambling and no one whatsoever cares about non-sports-gambling prediction markets. Thats the difference. Framing this as an issue about prediction markets is misleading. It’s about sports gambling only
From the linked survey results:
Percent who say they "frequently" or "sometimes" engage in:
online sports betting: 23%
prediction markets: 14%
Not a huge difference. I would say the two things are not materially different in popularity (in this one survey).
The article (which I agree is a bit crappy) even goes out of its way to mention the two things separately in the sentence "For someone to win in a prediction market or sports bet, someone else has to lose." They are different things, but they are both zero-sum, which is the point of the article. So the two things are not really different in principle, either.
I can't really grasp what your point is or how you can criticize the article for not being unsupported by the link, and then misrepresent the contents of the link.
> prediction markets: 14%
Doubt
A lot of people are pretty puritanical about gambling in general. I think prediction markets just push themselves harder and have an air of tech bro douchebaggery about them, so that's why they are currently getting most of the hate.
> American capitalism was a win-win. We've abandoned it to bet | Opinion
> If all of this money went into the capital markets instead, it would finance the growth of companies through innovation and entrepreneurship, as well as infrastructure that girds the economy.
It's all about the fortune spent on prediction markets. The NBA just announced deals with them. It's capitalism's ultimate dream: "Self Regulation".